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ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ

ﺩﺭ ﻃﯽ ﺗﺎﺭﯾﺦ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻼﺵ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﯼ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺩﻭ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ

ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﭘﯿﺶ ﮔﻮﯾﯽ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﯾﺰﯼ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﮐﺮﺩﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺘﺎﺭﻩ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﮔﻮﯼ

ﮐﺮﯾﺴﺘﺎﻟﯽ ﻭ ﻏﯿﺮﻩ ﮐﻪ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﯼ ﮐﻤﯽ ﻭ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﯼ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻬﯿﻪ ﮐﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺒﻨﺎﯼ

ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎﯼ ﻋﻘﻼﻧﯿﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺁﮔﺎﻫﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ

ﮐﻪ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻫﯿﭻ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﻭ ﺻﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﻧﯿﺴﺖ.ﻭ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ

ﺟﻮﺍﻥ ﻭﻗﺸﺮ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ


ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮﯼ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ. ﺗﻔﮑﺮ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﮐﺎﺭ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎ ﺁﺳﺎﻧﯽ ﺍﺳﺖ.ﻫﻤﻪ ﻣﺎ

ﺗﺠﺮﺑﯿﺎﺕ ﻓﺮﺍﻭﺍﻧﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺯﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﯾﻢ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺭﻭﺯﻣﺮﻩ ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ

ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﯾﺰﯼ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺮﺕ ﺗﻔﺮﯾﺤﯽ،ﻧﻮﺷﺘﻦ ﮐﺎﺭﻫﺎﯼ

ﻫﻔﺘﮕﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﻫﯿﻢ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﯾﻦ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﻔﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻤﻪ ﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﯽ

ﺷﺨﺼﯽ ﻭﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﯾﮏ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﮋﻭﻩ ﻫﺴﺘﯿﻢ. ﻣﺎ ﻭﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺣﻔﻆ

ﻭ ﺑﻘﺎﯼ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﯾﮑﺪﯾﮕﺮ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ


ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﯿﻢ.ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺗﮑﻤﯿﻞ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺗﺸﺒﯿﻪ،ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺎﺭﻩ ﺟﺎﻟﺐ ﺩﯾﮕﺮﯼ ﻧﯿﺰ

ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺫﮐﺮ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮ ﺯﻣﯿﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺜﺎﺑﻪ  ﻣﺎﺷﯿﻦ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ.ﯾﻌﻨﯽ

ﺣﺮﮐﺖ ﺑﯽ ﻭﻗﻔﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﯼ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺗﻤﺮﺩﻡ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺁﻧﮑﻪ

ﻋﺎﻗﻼﻧﻪ ﻋﻤﻞ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ، ﺑﺎﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﯾﮕﺮﺍﻥ،ﻭﺍﮐﻨﺶ

ﻫﺎﯼ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﺮﻭﻫﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﮐﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺁﻧﻬﺎﺳﺖ،ﺁﮔﺎﻫﯽ ﻭ

ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﮐﺎﻓﯽ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ.ﻧﮑﺘﻪ


ﺑﺴﯿﺎﺭ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺍﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺥ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﺪ ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻓﮑﺮ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ

ﺑﻘﯿﻊ ﻗﺸﺮ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺼﻮﺹ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﻭ ﺍﻗﻮﺍﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﺑﺎﺷﯿﻢ ﻭ ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ

ﻣﯿﮑﻮﺷﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺸﻨﺎﺳﺪ ﻭ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ

ﺣﺪﺳﯽ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻨﻮﻧﯽ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ ﻣﯿﺪﻫﺪ.ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ

ﮐﺸﻒ،ﺍﺑﺪﺍﻉ،ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ،ﺁﺯﻣﻮﻥ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺯﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﯾﺰﯼ ﺩﺭﺳﺖ ﻭ

ﮐﻼﻥ ﺑﮑﻨﺪ.ﻭ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ


ﺗﺎ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﮕﺮ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﺍﯼ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺭﯾﺢ ﻗﻮﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﻭ

ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﻃﺮﻓﺪﺍﺭﻥ ﺯﯾﺎﺩﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻣﻠﺖ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻭﺭﺩﯼ ﻭ ﯾﻌﻨﯽ ﻣﺎ

ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﺨﻮﺷﯽ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻭ ﻧﺰﺩﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﻓﮑﺮ ﻣﯿﮑﻨﯿﻢ ﻭﺍﺯﺁﻥ ﻟﺬﺕ

ﻣﺒﯿﺮﯾﻢ ﻭ ﻣﯿﮕﻮﯾﯿﻢ ﻓﮑﺮ ﮐﺮﺩﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻫﯿﭻ ﻧﻔﻌﯽ ﻭ ﻓﺎﯾﺪﻩ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﻣﺎ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ

ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺭﯾﺰﯼ ﻣﺴﯿﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻧﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻭ

ﻫﺮ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮﻣﺎﻥ ﺭﻗﻢ


ﺧﻮﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺖ. .ﺍﮔﺮ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ

ﭘﺲ ﺩﯾﮕﺮ ﻫﯿﭻ ﮐﺲ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻤﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻝ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺧﻼﻓﮑﺎﺭﺍﻧﻪ ﺍﺵ ﺩﺍﻧﺴﺖ

ﭼﺮﺍ ﮐﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺷﺨﺺ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻗﺮﺑﺎﻧﯽ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻭ ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺧﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ

ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﯿﺖ ﮐﺎﺭﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﻥ ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺖ. ﻭﺟﻮﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ

ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻓﮑﺮ ﻣﯿﮑﻨﻨﺪ ﭘﺪﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻗﻮﺍﻡ ﻭ ﮐﻞ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﭼﯽ ﮐﺎﺭﯼ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ ﯾﺎ ﭼﯽ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ

ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻢ ﭘﺲ ﺑﻪ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﯾﺰﯼ ﻧﻤﯽ


ﮐﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻘﯿﻪ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﯽ ﮐﺸﺎﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻣﯽ ﮔﻮﯾﯿﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﮐﺴﯽ ﺧﺒﺮ

ﻧﺪﺍﺭﯼ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻓﮑﺮ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﻧﺒﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻃﺮﺯ ﻓﮑﺮ ﺭﺍ ﭘﺪﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ

ﻓﺮﺯﻧﺪﺍﻥ ﯾﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺩﯼ ﻭ ﻣﯽ ﮔﻮﯾﯿﺪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺑﺪﯼ ﮐﺪﻭﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﺭﯾﺲ ﯾﺎ ﯾﮏ ﮐﺎﺭﯼ

ﺷﺪ ﮐﯽ ﺗﻮ ﻣﯿﺨﻮﺍﯼ ﺑﺸﯽ. ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮﮔﺮﺍﺋﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ ﯾﮏ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺑﻬﺎﻧﻪ، ﺑﺨﺸﺶ ﻭ

ﺁﻣﺮﺯﺵ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﮔﻨﺎﻫﺎﻥ، ﺧﻄﺎﻫﺎ،ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺿﻌﻒ ﻭﻏﯿﺮﻩ ﺍﯾﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﯿﮑﻨﺪﻭ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺣﻘﺎﯾﻖ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ


ﮐﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﯾﺮ ﻧﺎﻡ


ﺑﺮﺩ) :۱(ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻓﻬﻢ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ)۲(ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ)۳(ﻓﻮﺭﯾﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺭ

ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ )۴(ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻓﻬﻢ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﯾﻌﻨﯽ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺎ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﻠﻮﭺ ﻧﻤﯽ

ﺗﻮﺍﻧﯿﻢ ﭼﯿﺰﯼ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﻔﻬﻤﯿﻢ ﯾﺎ ﺑﺪﺍﻧﯿﻢ.ﺯﯾﺮﺍ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﯾﮏ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺴﯿﺎﺭ

ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﻩ ﺍﯼ ﺭﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻠﻮ ﺣﺮﮐﺖ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﯽ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ

ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺟﺰﺋﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﯿﻢ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﮐﺴﺐ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ

ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺷﺨﺼﯽ ﻭ


ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺴﯿﺎﺭ ﺍﺭﺯﺷﻤﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ.ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻗﻮﻡ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ

ﺑﮕﯿﺮﯾﻢ ﻭ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻓﻌﻠﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﭘﺴﺮﺍﻥ

ﻭ ﺩﺧﺘﺮﺍﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺭﺱ ﺑﺨﻮﻧﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮﯼ ﺩﺭﺳﺘﯽ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ

ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ..ﺩﺭ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻫﯿﭻ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺖ ﺍﺻﻼ ﻣﺎ

ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﮑﺮ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﻧﺒﻮﺩﯾﻢ.ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﯽ ﻓﻘﻂ

ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺘﯿﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻮﺍﺩﺙ


ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﻦ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻋﮑﺲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﯿﻢ. ﻧﺼﻒ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ:ﻣﺎ ﻫﯿﭻ

ﮐﺎﺭﯼ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﻤﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﯿﻢ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﻫﯿﻢ.ﮐﻞ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ:ﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ

ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﮐﻤﯽ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺷﮑﻞ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺯﻣﯿﻦ ﻭ ﺑﺴﯿﺎﺭ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﺋﻨﺎﺕ

ﺩﺍﺭﯾﻢ.ﺍﻣﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺷﺨﺼﯽ ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﯾﻢ ﯾﻌﻨﯽ

ﻣﺎ ﺯﻧﺪﺍﻧﯽ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻭﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﻧﯿﺴﺘﯿﻢ ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﯽ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺷﮑﻞ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ

ﺑﻪ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﯾﻢ.ﻧﺼﻒ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ ﺍﯾﻦ


ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺎ ﻧﺒﺎﯾﺪ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺻﺮﻑ ﺗﻔﮑﺮ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ ﺯﯾﺮﺍ ﻣﺸﮑﻼﺕ

ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺭﯼ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻮﺭﯾﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﺋﯽ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺗﻔﮑﺮ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺍﻭﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯼ

ﺩﺍﺭﺩ.ﺍﻣﺎ ﮐﻞ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ:ﺩﺭﺳﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺸﮑﻼﺕ ﺭﻭﺯﻣﺮﻩ ﻭ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﯼ ﺭﺍ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ

ﺯﻭﺩﺗﺮ ﺣﻞ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺍﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻧﯿﺴﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻔﮑﺮ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﻣﺸﮑﻼﺕ ﻓﻮﺭﯼ ﻭ

ﺿﺮﻭﺭﯼ ﻣﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﮑﺮ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ.ﺩﺭ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺩﻧﯿﺎﯼ ﭘﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺩﯾﮕﺮ

ﺳﻨﺖ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻗﺪﯾﻤﯽ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺷﮑﻞ ﻧﻤﯽ


ﺩﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﻣﺎ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺧﻠﻖ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﯿﻢ ﺧﻮﺩ،ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻭ

ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮﺍﺕ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺳﺎﺯﯾﻢ ﻭ ﻧﻪ ﺍﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﺳﻨﺖ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻗﺪﯾﻤﯽ ﺭﺍ

ﺯﯾﺮ ﭘﺎ ﺑﺬﺍﺭﯾﻢ ﮐﻤﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻓﮑﺮ ﻭ ﻋﻘﻞ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻭﻧﯿﻢ ﺍﯾﻦ ﮐﺎﺭ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻦ

ﻣﯿﮑﻨﻢ ﺩﺭﺳﺘﯽ ﯾﺎ ﻧﻪ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﯾﻦ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﯽ ﻧﺒﺎﯾﺪ ﺑﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﺸﻐﻠﻪ ﺯﯾﺎﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﮔﯿﺮ

ﺷﺪﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻧﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺟﺎﺭﯼ ﻓﺮﺍﻣﻮﺵ ﺷﻮﺩ.ﻣﺎ ﻧﺒﺎﯾﺪ ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﯿﻢ

ﮐﻪ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ


ﺑﺎﺷﯿﻢ. ﺑﺎﻻﺧﺮﻩ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ ﺁﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﻣﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﯿﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﻓﮑﺮ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ ﻭ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻠﯽ

ﭘﯿﺪﺍ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ. ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﯽ ﺑﺴﯿﺎﺭ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻭ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﯼ ﺍﺳﺖ ﭼﻮﻥ ﻧﻤﯿﺘﻮﺍﻧﯿﻢ ﺑﻪ

ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺖ ﺁﻧﺮﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﻮﯾﻖ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺪﺍﺯﯾﻢ ﻣﺎ ﻓﮑﺮ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﯿﻢ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺯ ﮐﺎﺭ ﻣﯿﮑﻨﯿﻢ

ﻫﻤﯿﺸﻪ ﻣﺮﺯ ﻫﺴﺖ ﻭ ﻓﮑﺮ ﻣﯿﮑﻨﯿﻢ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺪﯾﻢ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺎﻻ ﺷﻐﻞ ﭘﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺑﻮﺩﯼ ﺩﺭ

ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻫﻤﯿﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻧﻪ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻧﻤﯿﺸﻪ ﻭﻟﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻓﮑﺮ ﺍﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﺷﯿﻢ.

ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻥ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ


ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻃﺮﺍﺣﯽ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﯼ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﺋﯽ ﻫﺎﯼ

ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺷﮑﻞ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ. ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺎﻥ ﯾﮑﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻻﯾﻞ ﺍﺻﻠﯽ

ﺍﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺒﻬﻢ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﺋﯽ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ

ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﮔﺬﺍﺭﯾﻢ ﻭ ﻣﺴﯿﺮ ﺣﻮﺍﺩﺙ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺩﻫﯿﻢ ﻭﺍﻻ ﻫﯿﭻ ﭼﯿﺰ ﻣﺒﻬﻤﯽ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﻤﯽ

ﺩﺍﺷﺖ. ﺑﻄﻮﺭﮐﻠﯽ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﯼ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺩﺳﺘﻪ ﮐﻠﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ

ﺑﻨﺪﯼ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ:

ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ ﯾﺎ


ﺍﺳﺘﺘﻨﺎﺟﯽ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺗﺠﻮﯾﺰﯼ ﯾﺎ ﻫﻨﺠﺎﺭﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ ﯾﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺘﻨﺎﺟﯽ،

ﺳﻌﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺍﯾﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﻮﺍﺩﺙ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﻧﺪﻫﺎﯼ

ﺣﺎﮐﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ، ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﯾﺎ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ ﺭﺍﮐﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﻮﻗﻮﻉ

ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﻦ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ،ﺗﺸﺮﯾﺢ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻒ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ.ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮ ﯾﺎ

ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮﻫﺎﺋﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺁﯾﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﻣﯽ ﺁﯾﺪ



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